The AfD is estimated at 39 seats, just short of the 42 needed for an absolute majority. Whether they actually govern depends on whether BSW clears the 5% threshold — if it doesn't, seats redistribute and an AfD majority becomes possible. Every other party still refuses to coalition with them. AfD state leader Ulrich Siegmund says the party wants to govern alone. A possible anti-AfD coalition of CDU, SPD, Greens, and Linke is mathematically tight and politically awkward — CDU has ruled out a formal coalition with Die Linke. Siegmund has campaigned on mass deportations, ending new wind farms, changing the state slogan to "Think German," and reintroducing the national anthem in schools. The result is being read as a direct protest against Chancellor Merz's federal government and a preview of the 2029 federal election. Two more state votes follow soon in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. The question now is whether the firewall holds or whether the AfD actually takes executive power in a German state for the first time since 1945.