A new US intelligence assessment warns that Putin could test NATO's resolve with limited action even while the Ukraine war continues. This reverses an earlier US view that Russia would avoid provoking NATO while tied down in Ukraine. Officials now assess Putin could attempt a limited assault on a NATO member in the coming years. The scenarios range from major cyberattacks and hybrid operations to a small-scale ground incursion on the alliance's eastern flank—not a full-scale invasion. The time window runs from this fall through 2029, with a direct ground incursion seen as least likely but the overall risk rising. The assessed goal is to fracture the alliance and challenge Article 5's credibility, with Putin viewed as potentially more dangerous when "backed into a corner" by slow battlefield gains and Ukrainian deep strikes. Source: WSJ