CSIS estimates the US has burned through so much of its air defense stockpile in the Iran war that Patriot inventories are now under 1,000 interceptors and THAAD is down to about 250.
Pre-war baselines were roughly 2,330 Patriots and 360 THAADs, meaning more than half of each has been used up.
On top of that, more than 1,000 Tomahawks and 1,100 JASSMs have been fired, along with heavy drawdowns of SM-3, SM-6, and PrSM missiles.
Rebuild timelines are brutal.
Tomahawk, THAAD, and Patriot need 3+ years to return to pre-war levels, with major FY27 Patriot buys not delivering until May 2029.
It leaves a multi-year vulnerability window for any Western Pacific fight with China.
It also constrains transfers to Ukraine and Gulf allies.